[新聞] 霍爾木茲河並未完全封鎖？分析人士調查

作者ShaoJi (洨雞)

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標題[新聞] 霍爾木茲河並未完全封鎖？分析人士調查

時間Mon Apr 6 23:40:05 2026

原文標題： Hormuz Not Fully Blocked? Analysts Investigate Frontline: Iran Establishes 'Navigation Management System' 原文連結： https://reurl.cc/npDR26 發布時間： 2026/4/6 10:41 記者署名：原文內容： ①Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz; ②the report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Cailian Press reported on April 7 (edited by Xia Junxiong) that research firm Citrini Research released a sensational report over the weekend, not only because its conclusions contradicted the current market consensus but also because the report was written after analysts conducted field investigations in the Strait of Hormuz. The report concluded that the Strait of Hormuz had not been completely closed, and Iran had established a "de facto navigation management system." Following the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February, Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation. Citrini Research stated that the market currently tends to describe the situation in the Strait of Hormuz using extreme terms: it is either on the verge of being blockaded or fully open and secure. To clarify the situation, Citrini Research dispatched "Analyst No. 3" (internal codename "Agent 3") to the Strait of Hormuz with a straightforward mission: observe what was actually happening. According to Citrini Research, this analyst is proficient in four languages, including Arabic, and carried a Pelican case filled with recording equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, a box of Zyn nicotine pouches, and approximately $15,000 in cash, proceeding with an itinerary planned days earlier in Manhattan. Note: Citrini Research is headquartered in New York. On the water, conflict and trade are unfolding simultaneously. Citrini Research pointed out that although the United States maintains a military posture aimed at containing Iran's escalation of tensions, many of its allies have adopted a more discreet approach. Countries such as Japan, France, and Greece are negotiating directly or indirectly with Iran to ensure their tankers can continue sailing. This has resulted in a situation where shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not collapsed but operates in a controlled and selective manner. The report states that Iran has established a de facto navigation management system between Qeshm and Larak islands. Specifically, vessels wishing to pass through must submit detailed information via intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details, and pay transit fees. Approved vessels will receive an authorization code, and in many cases, an escort; non-compliant vessels will be required to wait. Citrini Research stated that Iran’s aim is not to close the strait but to assert sovereignty. This model mimics Turkey's long-standing management of the Bosporus Strait: regulation, fee collection, and maintaining trade flow. Iranian officials publicly announced at the end of March that Iran plans to establish a new strait management system, modeled after Turkey’s management of the Bosporus Strait and Egypt’s control of the Suez Canal. Vessels passing through the strait would be required to obtain permission from Iran and pay corresponding transit and service fees. For Iran, this brings both revenue and increased leverage while allowing the country to position itself as a 'responsible manager' of global trade rather than a 'reckless disruptor.' For most countries worldwide, this represents an uneasy but workable compromise. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to catastrophic economic consequences, with oil inventories being depleted at a rate that the global system cannot sustain. Citrini Research pointed out that this is precisely why most energy-importing nations have chosen negotiation over confrontation. Shipping patterns have already begun to adjust, with fewer very large crude carriers and more small vessels and liquefied gas carriers. This reality holds significant implications for the market. Even without a full blockade, freight rates may remain elevated, and energy insecurity will persist. However, this chaotic yet multipolar reality is still preferable to another extreme scenario. The strait is not closed; it is being reshaped in a low-profile yet continuous manner, gradually exerting control over each vessel. Notably, Citrini Research also released a market-shaking report in February this year, which depicted a scenario where AI could severely impact the global economy, further intensifying market anxiety already gripped by fears over AI. 心得/評論：我簡單抓取重點並結合其他訊息後整理如下 1.紐約知名研究機構Citrini Research的「3號分析師」，親自跑去何木茲海峽數船 2.原始資料來源是Citrini Research機構所發布的調查報告名為《Strait of Hormuz:A Citrini Field Trip》不過該份完整的實地考察報告屬於他們機構內部的付費訂閱內容外部媒體目前大多是引述其公開的摘要精華 3.由於該海域的訊號干擾與欺騙嚴重市場常用的公開 AIS和衛星圖出現了巨大的盲區漏報了將近50%的真實通行流量 (想來是因為都是幽靈船) 4.他不顧阿曼邊境特工的勸阻與海岸警衛隊的警告在港口用一疊現金臨時雇了一名素未謀面的船長搭乘一艘沒有GPS導航的破舊快艇出海 5.到了距離伊朗海岸僅18英里的公海後當時頭頂上有「見證者」無人機盤旋遠處還有伊朗革命衛隊的巡邏艇在巡航 6.他甚至還愜意地跳入海峽中嘴裡叼著古巴雪茄游泳不過隨後他便被當地的海岸警衛隊攔截並短暫拘留手機也遭到沒收 7.他與阿曼軍方簽訂了保密協議不得拍攝、不得紀錄、不得刺探、不得撰寫報導但他畢竟還是發了這份報告此舉可能讓他日後有被報復的危險 8.3號分析師的結論是： a.荷姆茲海峽並不是簡單的「非開即關」而是處於一種「動態執法」的狀態方式比較類似於隨機抽查伊朗方並未能夠有足夠能力完全實時攔船、檢查、收費但伊朗革命衛隊依然在現場主導了「誰能通過」的新規矩 b.市場上的油價反應，包含布蘭特原油以及各類現貨價等皆依靠AIS的情況去作價格推估這嚴重失真 9.這位三號分析師自此被封為「金融界詹姆士龐德」華爾街的分析師這麼卷啊......也太猛...... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.166.9.65 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1775490008.A.CDE.html

推 max0616 : 想想你要怎樣的分析師 04/06 23:41

→ rogger : 恩現貨買布蘭特141的該來參考一下 04/06 23:41

→ gn02118620 : 這個船長也是人才-.- 04/06 23:41

貧困地區多的是要錢不要命的死士

→ gn02118620 : 就大家都用幽靈船把貨運出去-.- 一起發大財 04/06 23:42

推 weiren6 : 重點是保險哪怕是什麼動態執法 04/06 23:42

※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/06/2026 23:43:48

推 Jaspercool : 分析師這麼卷哦，還要去戰亂地區實地探險 04/06 23:43

推 chino32818 : 笑死，好萊塢電影又有新題材了 04/06 23:43

推 sdbb : 謝謝 04/06 23:43

推 Jameshunter : 好拚但所以有多少船還在裡面 04/06 23:44

→ Jaspercool : 不過有不少船是用幽靈船出去很早就有報導了 04/06 23:44

推 qqq852963tw : 幽靈船撞船誰要賠？ 04/06 23:44

推 gladopo : 沒幾個願意這樣玩命好嗎= = 04/06 23:44

→ Jaspercool : 幽靈船是只求出去啦沒有保險不會再進來 04/06 23:44

推 ab4daa : 穩了 04/06 23:45

→ uv5566 : 影子船隊再偷運嗎 04/06 23:45

→ Jaspercool : 所以對事態不會有太大的幫助 04/06 23:45

推 lavign : 所以實際上是阿曼和伊朗聯合封鎖海峽 04/06 23:45

推 wulaw5566 : 靠阿曼那側水太淺，滿載的油輪、LNG船沒辦法走。 04/06 23:45

推 speady : 油輪敢賭嗎？ 04/06 23:45

推 Fezico : 沒保險賭屁... 04/06 23:46

推 bcismylove : 這還用得著分析日本都通過了阿 04/06 23:46

→ potionx : 這其實很正常真正做交易的人想要第一手資料都會搞 04/06 23:49

推 windfeather : 用命寫報導喔 04/06 23:49

→ potionx : 一些花招去獲取情報等別人的情報都是落後資訊了 04/06 23:49

推 k7539512 : 難怪油漲不上去啊啊啊！！ 04/06 23:50

→ potionx : 以前聽過的例子是用無人機去看廠家的大宗物資有多少 04/06 23:50

推 g0t24568 : Citrini一直都很猛啊 04/06 23:50

→ potionx : 後來被廠家發現就都蓋住不給看 04/06 23:50

推 kakalin : 親自去現場數船也太硬核笑死 04/06 23:50

推 acolam : 我就是想要這種分析師 04/06 23:52

推 ntr203 : 我ok 你先過 04/06 23:53

推 jacknavarra : 這種分析師也猛了 04/06 23:53

推 josephpu : 分析師真卷 04/06 23:54

推 jen1121 : AI 文喔 04/06 23:55

推 stcr3011 : 這家績效好得很誇張 04/06 23:56

推 wu73 : #我在戰爭的時候游泳 04/06 23:57

→ wu73 : 證交法老師舉例是在工廠數車 04/06 23:58

→ wu73 : 看來以後可以舉新案例 04/06 23:58

推 s881720 : 在美國當分析師還要兼戰地記者喔笑死 04/06 23:59

推 taikonkimo : 只是這種就賭啊被抓就火球一個囉 04/07 00:00

→ MoneyDay5566: AI文 04/07 00:00

→ loom0et0bust: 還是賭啊，出事完全沒得理賠 04/07 00:03

推 cheedo : 龍哥哲哲嘉偉學著點 04/07 00:04

推 Roger5566 : 快艇vs油輪等於懶覺vs雞腿伊朗看到還懶得攻擊 04/07 00:04

→ Roger5566 : 有種開美國軍艦過去看看會不會被打爆 04/07 00:05

推 homenet9 : 伊朗封鎖資源有限但大型船隻還是得伊朗點頭才行 04/07 00:07

推 j65p4m3 : 這太猛了吧笑死 04/07 00:09

推 giroro255 : 這樣跟封鎖有什麼兩樣，你一條爛命想賭就去賭，一 04/07 00:12

→ giroro255 : 艘貨櫃船加貨物至少值幾億鎂誰敢賭 04/07 00:12

→ CYL009 : 快艇誰鳥你無人機看到都懶得理油輪目標很大很好發 04/07 00:13

→ CYL009 : 現啊 04/07 00:13

→ CYL009 : 要不要賭漁船還可以捕魚啊www 油輪和天然氣船都要特 04/07 00:14

→ CYL009 : 種船運呢 04/07 00:14

推 HellFly : 就是賭啊的，但哪艘油輪敢賭？ 04/07 00:14

推 Altair : 這哪部電影? XDDD 04/07 00:14

噓 HardyJJ : …垃圾文不要來亂… 04/07 00:14

→ dsrte : 這是ai文? 要怎麼看出來? 英文也能看出是AI文，未免 04/07 00:14

→ dsrte : 太厲害 04/07 00:14

推 hosen : 實地勘驗 04/07 00:14

噓 ponpondoggy : 重點就是沒有人會冒險好嗎 04/07 00:15

推 gary4 : 你再說一次，哪條河？ 04/07 00:16

推 kof70380 : 伊朗已經放話如果戰事升級曼德海峽也會封鎖 04/07 00:16

推 k7539512 : 難怪油一直跌啊啊啊 04/07 00:17

推 Xanphenir : 流量是沒封鎖的不到一成，但漏報50% 04/07 00:17

→ Xanphenir : 乘起了也跟封鎖差不多 04/07 00:17

→ xeins : 吃水深的油輪能過再說吧一台小艇能證明什麼？ 04/07 00:18

文盲真多 ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:19:03

→ perlone : 很多人趁著炒作油價發財阿伊朗自己也賺很多 04/07 00:23

→ napdh : 華西街003 04/07 00:24

→ akanokuruma : 標題應該是海峽吧 04/07 00:24

標題我是直接按網頁翻譯後貼上的0.0 ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:26:06

→ CYL009 : 偷跑這麼多的話早就成了話題了還用得著去實地看嗎？ 04/07 00:27

→ CYL009 : 而且他也嘗試一次而已就可以下決定了？ 04/07 00:27

→ ringil : 等等這網站有寫是機翻來自cls.cn的報導…所以原報 04/07 00:29

→ ringil : 導是中文的然後它翻成英文你又翻成中文= = 04/07 00:29

我沒看cls.cn的中文頁面我是這個網址的英文文章我就直接讀了XDD ※ 編輯: ShaoJi (218.166.9.65 臺灣), 04/07/2026 00:32:23

推 facefear : 真猛 04/07 00:32

推 odddriver : 好猛喔 04/07 00:32

→ akanokuruma : 原連結的右上角有個地球按下去這篇是中文報導... 04/07 00:32

推 Rutschman : 你想要什麼樣的分析師，學著點。 04/07 00:32

推 HiuAnOP : 想想看你要怎樣的分析師！ 04/07 00:38

推 HiuAnOP : 一切的一切！我的親身到現場去查核！別的分析都靠感 04/07 00:40

→ HiuAnOP : 覺！只有我！鏡頭給我！只有我是親自調查！ 04/07 00:40

→ HiuAnOP : 各位朋友們好好想想，要選就要選最厲害的分析師！ 04/07 00:41

推 g9911761 : 廢話不就說了付錢就可以過啊 04/07 00:46

→ g9911761 : 還有尊爵不凡軍隊開道 04/07 00:46

推 sdamel : 影子船隊的事上個月就聊過了 04/07 00:47

推 superich : 又不用完全封鎖，有被炸的風險就夠了 04/07 00:49

→ sova0809 : 多了一倍其實不少從5艘船變成10艘船 04/07 00:52

→ sova0809 : 但實物缺口的部分還是在那因為最多也就這樣 04/07 00:52

→ sova0809 : 給個數據參考戰前每天通過的船數是至少破百差距就 04/07 00:55

→ sova0809 : 麼大 04/07 00:55

推 ezqq123 : 數咖啡已經落伍了現在流行數船 04/07 00:56

推 ricky525 : 龐德不是退休換成印度裔辛.邦德 04/07 01:05

推 aeoleron : 講難聽一點開戰那天伊朗亂成一團就該趕快走了 04/07 01:08

→ aeoleron : 那些趁早跑掉的船現在應該都暗爽 04/07 01:08

→ StarRoad : 台灣的分析師只會跟你說訂單排到3年後 04/07 01:16

噓 strlen : 衛星照得一清二楚就你各位韭菜整天猜有沒有封 04/07 01:26

噓 GN02209611 : 本來就是有限度開放== 04/07 01:27

推 ksjr : 財聯社的原文 https://www.cls.cn/detail/2335900 04/07 01:29

→ ksjr : Citrini Research的報告看起來是要訂閱才看的到? 04/07 01:32

→ ksjr : https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-horm 04/07 01:33

→ strlen : 沒有什麼影子船隊啦船跑那麼慢隨便都能追蹤 04/07 01:33

→ ksjr : uz-a-citrini-field 懶得縮== 04/07 01:33

→ strlen : 美國情報不可能不知道現在到底通行狀況是怎樣 04/07 01:34

→ strlen : 也不用看原文都未證實消息你不是情報內部人員就是 04/07 01:35

→ strlen : 不可能知道真實狀況 04/07 01:35

推 ChikanDesu : 就是保險不保啊不保你被擊沉貨物直接賠爛 04/07 02:03

推 fernmmm : 哪裡正常啊你看還有哪家分析師敢去的 04/07 02:42

推 ericc5566 : 問題是誰要賭，賭輸了誰要賠 04/07 03:03

→ z030060374 : 分析師自己去拿消息面很猛啊 04/07 03:10

推 horse2819 : 哇靠猛人 04/07 04:07

推 as3366700 : 所以之前法國日本那些過去的到底是偷過還是被放行 04/07 04:26

→ as3366700 : 都說是談了什麼交易好像也沒證實過 04/07 04:27

推 theurgy : 做空或買油就去加入革命衛隊不是很正常嗎 04/07 05:17

噓 askaa : 不是非開及觀還有一個開一半你貼文都不自己先看一 04/07 05:37

推 kkmmking : 很正常，這種三不五時戰亂區的地方執法大都很混亂 04/07 06:47

→ kkmmking : ，不過這記者真的值得敬佩該頒獎給他了 04/07 06:47

噓 airva : 金融師跟你玩命去戰地海峽？ 04/07 07:00

推 Erechtheus : 不存在的分析師 04/07 07:06

→ bnn : 後面就影響很多錢倒楣的員工只能肉身去量測 04/07 07:19

→ bojan0701 : 就是在賭而已 04/07 07:40

→ ev331 : 猛 04/07 07:40

推 mmarty : 這真的是金融分析師還是CIA? 04/07 07:50

推 ahg : 這題我會水中魚兒自由進出 04/07 08:15

推 wolver : 薛丁格的海峽我知道 04/07 08:16

推 yoyojan : 真分析師 04/07 08:22

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