[分享] MLB投手:很會打速球是吧、那就狂丟變化球

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標題[分享] MLB投手:很會打速球是吧、那就狂丟變化

時間Fri Apr 17 22:31:42 2026

只能說大聯盟真的是很恐怖的地方 Sportsnet藍鳥記者Arden Zwelling撰文分析了岡本目前17場比賽對方投手對他丟的球 https://reurl.cc/YD4WD0 It’s a fraught exercise to dive too deep into 17 games’ worth of plate appeara nces, but even over this miniscule sample, trends have emerged. 深入分析僅僅17場比賽的打席其實風險很高，但即便樣本極小，仍然已經出現了一些趨勢 Clubs began the season challenging Okamoto with velocity. Over his first seven g ames, Okamoto saw a fastball 56 per cent of the time. But over his 10 games sinc e, Okamoto has been spammed with curveballs and sliders. Since the beginning of the month, 40 per cent of the pitches Okamoto has seen have been breaking balls — the second-highest rate on the Blue Jays. 各隊在球季初期主要用速球來測試岡本，前7場比賽中，他有56%的球是速球但在接下來的10場比賽裡，他則被大量投以曲球與滑球，本月以來他面對的球種有40%是變化球——這是藍鳥隊內第二高的比例 That makes intuitive sense. Okamoto didn’t face premium, MLB-level heat regular ly over his last eight years in NPB. In the early going, the league forced him t o prove he can catch up to it. And once he did — eight of Okamoto’s first nine hits came off fastballs — pitchers adjusted to see how well he can recognize s pin. 這其實很合理，岡本在過去8年日職生涯中，並沒有經常面對大聯盟等級的頂級速球，開季初期大聯盟投手先逼他證明自己能跟上速球，而當他做到之後——前9支安打中有8支來自速球——投手便開始調整，改測試他辨識變化球的能力 That’s been more difficult. Okamoto entered this week’s series in Milwaukee wi th only one hit off a breaking ball this season — an opening-day flare to shall ow left-centre for his first MLB base hit — plus a team-high 50 per cent whiff rate against curveballs and sliders. A heat map of where all those breaking pitc hes have been located tells its own story: 這一點對他來說就困難多了，本週對上密爾瓦基前，岡本本季面對變化球只有1支安打—— 開幕戰擊向左中外野淺區的落點安打，也是他大聯盟生涯首安——而且對曲球與滑球的揮空率高達全隊最高的50%，至於這些變化球的落點熱區圖，也說明了一切 https://i.imgur.com/ppVPbsU.jpeg Okamoto’s strength over his NPB career was pulling pitches in the air for power while utilizing enough selectivity to run double-digit walk rates and making en ough contact around the zone to minimize strikeouts. Think Isaac Paredes. A pitc her’s obvious counter to that is living down-and-away with spin. Locate effecti vely enough to generate a swing and out-front hitters such as Okamoto or Paredes are likely to create weak contact off the end of their bats or whiff entirely. 岡本在日職時期的強項，是將球拉打成高飛球形成長打，同時具備良好的選球能力，能維持雙位數保送率，並在好球帶附近有足夠的contact能力來降低三振率可以把他想像成Isaac Paredes這種類型的打者，對付這種打者，投手最直接的策略就是用變化球攻擊外角低位置，只要控球到位、誘使出棒，像岡本或Paredes這種出棒較早的打者，很容易擊中球棒前端形成軟弱擊球，甚至直接揮空 But Okamoto showed encouraging signs of adjusting back late in Tuesday’s wacky, roller-coaster victory over the Brewers. In a 1-1 count against Angel Zerpa in the seventh, Okamoto anticipated a slider away, stayed on it, and sent a groundb all single back up the middle. Then, against Trevor Megill in the ninth, he look ed at a couple of curveballs beneath the zone before seeing one high enough to c hop through the left side of a drawn-in infield and tie a game. 不過在週二對戰釀酒人的戲劇性勝利後段，岡本也展現出調整的正面跡象，第七局面對Ange l Zerpa時，在1好1壞的情況下，他預判外角滑球並跟進擊球，將球打成中間方向的滾地安打接著在第九局對上Trevor Megill時，他先選掉幾顆落在好球帶下方的曲球，之後逮到一顆偏高的球，敲向左側內野穿越趨前守備，追平比分 Okamoto saw a team-high 19 breaking balls during that Brewers series — 10 of th em outside the strike zone. But he chased only two of those pitches. And when Br andon Sproat missed over the plate with an 0-2 sweeper in Thursday’s second inn ing, Okamoto pounced and drove it 379 feet to right-centre. Milwaukee’s America n Family Field held it. But it would have been a home run at half of MLB’s 30 b allparks, including Rogers Centre. 在那個系列賽中，岡本總共面對全隊最多的19顆變化球，其中有10顆在好球帶外，但他只追打了其中2顆，而在週四第二局，當Brandon Sproat在0好2壞時投出一顆失投滑球進入好球帶，岡本毫不猶豫出棒，將球擊向右中外野379英尺，雖然在American Family Field被接殺，但如果是在30座大聯盟球場中約一半的球場——包括Rogers Centre——這球其實都會形成全壘打 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.162.58.227 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1776436304.A.5B8.html

推 goury: 這就不得不想起以前的笑話，日職速球不夠強但變化球比MLB強04/17 22:34

推 GyroZeppeli: 有點像大王去日職的樣子QQ04/17 22:34

推 Relyonair: 好文推04/17 22:34

推 johnwu: 日本球員應該很會打變化球吧? 04/17 22:35

推 kiki2125: 其實對日職來說MLB的變化球的速度已經是快速球 04/17 22:36

推 StODf: 部長QQ 04/17 22:37

推 l810502: Mason Miller 95mph的變速球，怎麼說 04/17 22:37

→ kiki2125: 日職就整天東摸西摸，牽制，投個球，晚餐都吃完了 04/17 22:37

→ kiki2125: WBC被打爆也是預期的事04/17 22:38

推 sesd: 日職均速還輸大聯盟5KM04/17 22:39

推 bio5chris: 同5F，李政厚也說過類似的話 04/17 22:39

推 sasmwh561: 這篇讓我覺得大谷更神獸惹 04/17 22:40

推 goury: MLB 97邁的變速球（類似日職傳統定義的伸卡），怎麼打？？ 04/17 22:41

推 s5894143: 安可大概也會被這樣伺候 04/17 22:42

推 crayon1988: 大聯盟的變化球本來就很恐怖了04/17 22:43

推 caseywvt: 試探04/17 22:43

推 sesd: 李政厚確實有講過同樣的話超級快的變化球都嚇傻了04/17 22:45

→ gijizi: mlb103英里的伸卡直接投進去跟你拼，反正什麼鬼變化球都04/17 22:46

→ gijizi: 有04/17 22:46

推 tmc94: 大聯盟有的投手滑球比你速球還快04/17 22:46

→ Yjizz: MLB的速球變化球都難上不少04/17 22:47

推 crayon1988: 像Misiorowski滑球最快97.4mph 平常96-97mph在跑 04/17 22:48

→ Yjizz: 更快更刁鑽的變化球04/17 22:48

推 daisybubble: 只有我看不懂56%跟40%那段嗎前面56%不就代表變化球04/17 22:48

推 nyybronx: 證明MLB才沒有什麼喜歡用直球對決的理論04/17 22:49

→ daisybubble: 44% 比後面幾場說用更多變化球的40%還高? 04/17 22:49

→ WasJohnWall: 對啊根本沒有mlb愛直球對決這套04/17 22:50

※ 編輯: zxc906383 (1.162.58.227 臺灣), 04/17/2026 22:51:11

噓 Shinpn: 好的投手就是要用100%的直球對決 04/17 22:51

推 arexne: 安可現在也是阿壘上有人就請吃全變化球套餐 04/17 22:52

→ GyroZeppeli: 會說直球對決八成是棒球大聯盟看太多 04/17 22:52

→ amos30627: MLB是變了現在單純拼揮空看是用共軌還是速差騙你 04/17 22:52

→ amos30627: 不然單純火球還是很有機會被打成安打 04/17 22:53

→ userYuEyUe: 什麼意思這樣不是56%變60%直球 04/17 22:55

→ NdFe35: 我猜應該是分成fastball offspeed breaking 這三種 04/17 22:55

推 shoe: 寫錯吧，後面大概是40%速球60%變化球比較符合敘述 04/17 22:56

推 SphereDavid: 直接被攻略 04/17 22:56

→ NdFe35: https://imgur.com/NCopnzs 04/17 22:58

→ NdFe35: 最近還是有丟直球但是有幾場breaking佔60% 04/17 23:00

推 MK47: 你被翻譯誤導了一般分類是像N大講的速球系、breaking ball 04/17 23:00

推 CCY2000: 感覺在玩統計寫新聞而已變化沒那麼明顯 04/17 23:00

→ timidwei: MLB運科好像領先很多 04/17 23:01

→ MK47: (曲球、滑球類)、off-speed ball(變速、指叉) 只是中文常把 04/17 23:01

→ MK47: 後面那兩種統稱變化球所以你才會不知道那段在寫什麼 04/17 23:02

→ MK47: 雖然還是小樣本不過這個觀察還是蠻有意思的跟很多記者直覺 04/17 23:03

→ MK47: 上的報導顯然不同後續可以從這個角度觀察看看484這樣 04/17 23:03

→ GABA: 樣本真的小至少觀察三個月 04/17 23:04

推 TokyoHard: 太小,而且也跟對戰球隊有關 04/17 23:06

推 flowerabby01: 為什麼不用100%的直球跟100%的岡本對決給差評 04/17 23:11

→ apenguin: MLB本來就全方面贏日職啊是少數日吹不想承認吧….才會 04/17 23:13

→ apenguin: 硬說日職變化球好守備比MLB細膩之類的 04/17 23:13

→ apenguin: 事實上人家就是強力兼具穩定 04/17 23:14

推 Dimitre: 正常啊鄉民有網路就會分析了球隊都有專門後勤數據人員 04/17 23:20

→ Dimitre: 職業就是抓你弱點死裡打完全不給機會的 04/17 23:20

推 wa782653: 加油希望可以適應 04/17 23:28

推 roger871004: 記得鄭宗哲去年剛上大聯盟對上Hunter Greene被100mp 04/17 23:32

→ roger871004: h的速球k掉，這才是MLB的速球 04/17 23:32

推 lcy317: 以往會有印象日職守備超強跟MLB不相上下甚至更好 04/17 23:33

→ lcy317: 但數據攤開來看就是並沒有其實還輸一截 04/17 23:33

→ lcy317: 尤其是守備範圍跟臂力問題 04/17 23:33

→ lcy317: 日職能稍微比的只有失誤率 04/17 23:33

推 JackeyChen: 所以其實可以這麼說了，職業棒球除了大聯盟，其他頂 04/17 23:35

→ JackeyChen: 多是農場，農場的作物或肥料或垃圾這樣 04/17 23:35

推 liko7676: 又在大王真是有夠丟臉彈力球洗到二三軍去 04/17 23:36

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