作者kadar (卡卡達達)
看板TY_Research
標題[討論] 92W GW/TCFA
時間Mon Aug 18 09:43:58 2025
WTPQ50 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 22.2N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
https://i.meee.com.tw/JUuuieF.png
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ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED
MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT-
CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
AND AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
...
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
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模式對路徑反應滿兩極的
https://i.meee.com.tw/TJ8bQBQ.png
https://i.meee.com.tw/XnGlzek.png
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1755481442.A.FDA.html
※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 09:53:22
推 cjfnued : 中央氣象署也把這個認定為熱帶性低氣壓了 08/18 10:00
推 josh861010 : 21號要飛北海道欸… 會不會停飛阿！ 08/18 10:02
推 uodam64402 : 92W比較影響到九州四國等西日本地區，北海道如要受 08/18 10:06
→ uodam64402 : 天氣影響也不是這個系統。 08/18 10:06
推 josh861010 : 原來如此 謝謝解析 08/18 10:07
→ youngscott : 和之前數值預報差很多 連偏過來都沒有 直直去 08/18 10:12
推 Obama : 20日要去九州一週，擔心 08/18 11:20
推 abcdeffg : 我不專業看windy好像週三菲律賓東方有個熱低壓生成 08/18 11:43
→ abcdeffg : 那個應該影響台灣比較多 08/18 11:43
熱帶低壓≠熱低壓
#1eJhbg63 (TY_Research)
※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 11:47:44
推 abcdeffg : 感謝指正 08/18 11:48
推 MarVin009 : 菲東海域會出現的應該是90w 目前還在關島那邊 08/18 12:09
推 Bustycat : 這個預報不強，會不會停飛自己去問航司 08/18 12:45
推 Eeli2008 : 又在報行程（白眼 08/18 12:54
推 abeliangroup: 九州那個建議改行程吧 08/18 16:07
推 deathtrap : 90W除了遠還要看高壓臉色 08/18 16:39
→ airua : 等AI開示 08/18 16:50
推 MikeSoroka : 新手借版面發問，高雄下午這波大雨是典型的午後雷 08/18 17:57
→ MikeSoroka : 陣雨？ 08/18 17:57
推 vaughn : 是的喔 08/18 18:04
推 MikeSoroka : 感謝大大，所以明天是否也會下，現在還不得而知？ 08/18 18:43
推 vaughn : 定量降水預報明天高雄看來也會下蠻大，但這個難講 08/18 18:50
推 angryhwc : 感覺走得很慢....... 08/18 19:07
推 MikeSoroka : 感謝V大 08/18 19:10
推 Chang0212 : 近幾個小時似乎沒怎麼動 08/18 21:09
推 Eeli2008 : 乾掉了 08/18 21:19
推 ISISxDOG : 會消掉嗎 08/18 21:40
→ dildoe : 等8月底9月初那波好了 08/18 22:52
→ aegis43210 : AI反而對高空冷心低壓反應比較大 08/18 23:01
推 wsc891211 : 都已經八月中下旬連一個C4都搓不出來，這樣算異常 08/18 23:16
→ wsc891211 : 嗎？ 08/18 23:16
推 papapopo : 北大Erin 海放西太 08/18 23:20
推 Championlins: 6月那時氣象署的颱風展望好像說今年因為是反聖嬰年 08/18 23:24
→ Championlins: ，西太的颱風強度偏弱吧！ 08/18 23:24
推 Chang0212 : 西太持續躺分中 08/18 23:28
推 a27281591 : 咦所以今年各幾顆啦 08/18 23:36
推 aegis43210 : 今年算中性年 08/18 23:42
→ aegis43210 : niño4還沒到負距平0.5以下 08/18 23:44
→ Championlins: 喔喔～ 08/18 23:45
推 wl3532 : GW取消 08/19 09:18
推 joy2105feh : 九月初有個大物來台灣嗎？ 08/19 09:37
推 Lemonfish004: 今年高空環境太差 風切乾空氣狂干擾 08/19 09:54
推 cjfnued : 這顆還會發展嗎 都快散掉了@@ 08/19 09:58
推 ez910115 : 好像有，剛剛無聊看gfs,月底有個登陸台北 08/19 09:58
→ ez910115 : 反正還大旱 08/19 09:58
